Priority Neighborhoods by Region
Overview of the 100 highest-risk neighborhoods mapped by relative risk level, with regional classifications by county, local health district, and metropolitan status. Supports resource allocation across Utah's diverse geography, from the Wasatch Front to the Uinta Basin.
Open MapWhat Drives Risk? — Risk Factor Map
For each of the 100 highest-risk neighborhoods, identifies which specific factor — educational attainment, household income, social isolation, chronic disease, diesel pollution, homeownership, or walkability — contributes most to elevated supervision rates. Includes recommended intervention focus for each neighborhood, enabling precision targeting.
Open MapWhere Evidence Converges — Compounding Disadvantage
Identifies neighborhoods where multiple independent statistical analyses converge: compounding disadvantage across numerous risk dimensions simultaneously. These "spatial traps" represent the highest-confidence targets for coordinated, place-based investment. Evidence tier classification from "Emerging" to "Highest" based on number of converging analyses and risk dimensions.
Open MapTract Risk Profile Dashboard
Interactive reference dashboard ranking all 716 census tracts by each significant predictor from the INLA-BYM2 spatial models. For every variable — from diesel pollution to educational attainment — tracts are ranked by standardized exposure, with coefficient contributions (β × Z) showing how much each factor raises or lowers predicted supervision rates.
Open DashboardSalt Lake Urban Core Forthcoming
Salt Lake's westside neighborhoods where social fragmentation, low educational attainment, and treatment center proximity converge. The highest-density cluster of high-risk tracts, with coefficient contributions dominated by social isolation (living alone) and economic opportunity deficits. CCH deployment targets Pioneer Park to Glendale corridor.
The Ogden Cluster Forthcoming
Ogden's historically redlined neighborhoods where environmental burden (diesel PM) combines with health and education deficits. The environmental justice archetype is strongest here, with diesel PM contributing the largest share of excess risk among the environmental conversion factors.
The Uinta Basin Forthcoming
Energy-extraction communities facing geographic isolation, limited healthcare access, and economic volatility from commodity cycles. The infrastructure gap archetype dominates: transportation and healthcare conversion factor deficits drive risk through mechanisms distinct from urban cores, requiring cross-county coordination through the Tri-County CCH configuration.
Utah County Forthcoming
Rapidly growing suburban areas where risk emerges through unexpected pathways: social isolation in new developments, income inequality between established and transitional neighborhoods, and health access gaps in newly developed areas outpacing infrastructure. Challenges the assumption that suburban growth automatically produces capability-enabling conditions.
Carbon County Forthcoming
The most concentrated risk in the state: every tract in Carbon County is classified as high-risk. Coefficient contributions dominated by behavioral health (diabetes, physical health days), economic decline from coal industry contraction, and social isolation. The $25M investment scenario in the dual-domain cost-benefit illustration targets this county's specific binding constraints.
Carbon County Cost-Benefit Illustration Forthcoming
Illustrative cost-benefit analysis demonstrating the cross-domain spillover logic. A comprehensive investment targeting behavioral health ($8M), chronic disease ($5M), workforce development ($5M), social infrastructure ($4M), and economic diversification ($3M) appears marginally cost-ineffective under single-domain health evaluation (BCR = 0.85) but becomes cost-effective when criminal justice returns are included (BCR = 1.45). This demonstrates why siloed budget evaluation systematically undervalues investment in communities with compound disadvantage.